Prop. 1 Sinks to 50% in LA Times Poll as Vote Approaches

- Damaging Measure Is In Danger; Mental Health Programs Might be Spared the Knife

- Republicans Are Voting, But Only 22% Support Prop. 1

SACRAMENTO, March 1 – The latest public poll is a gut punch for Gov. Newsom and supporters of Prop. 1, showing that only 50% of likely California voters support his pet project, Proposition 1.

Opponents of the measure take the new poll as a sign that they can win in the campaign's final days.

Paul Simmons, a director of Californians Against Proposition 1, said, "Prop. 1 stinks to high heaven, and the voters' noses are working just fine. This measure can be and should be defeated. The next few days are critical."

"No matter where you stand politically," Simmons said, "there's something in Prop. 1 to hate. Whether it's the cost, or the track record of failure, or the fact that Prop. 1 hurts people who are getting mental health services now, there are flashing red lights everywhere."

In what is shaping up as a very low-turnout primary election, support has dropped sharply from some earlier polls. The LA Times reported on a new survey by the Institute for Governmental Studies this morning, March 1.

Among all voters considered "likely" to vote, support was at just 50%, with 34% "no" and 16% undecided – however, undecided voters typically vote "no."

Almost 80% of "likely voters" in the poll had not yet voted. Among those voters in the poll who had not yet cast a ballot, Prop. 1 had only 49% support.

Meantime, with low voter turnout, the pool of voters is turning out to be older, whiter, more Republican and conservative than the general California electorate, per the LA Times. Likely Republican voters give Prop. 1 only 22% support, underscoring the danger to Prop. 1 with this low turnout.

The newest poll results are consistent with another survey released last week, which contained a clear danger sign: Only 51% of voters thought now was a "good time" for a pricey bond like Prop. 1 contains. (Public Policy Institute of California, Feb. 23.)

Simmons concluded, "Our job for the final days is just to continue getting the facts out about the cost and damage threatened by Prop. 1. If Prop. 1 does go down, as we hope it will, the reasons why will all come down to poor strategy and decision-making by the governor."